Today, we will deal with the Kelly Criterion. On the Gambling Times website, you may have read two discussions of the Kelly Criterion; one by Edward 0. Thorp, the other by Lance Humble in the reprint of a portion of his book, Blackjack Gold. If you haven't done it already, you should read those two articles before continuing further. On this subject, I tend to disagree with my distinguished colleagues. I believe that as a practical matter, the Kelly Criterion should NOT be applied to blackjack play.
- Roulette Min And Max Bets In Casinos
- Free Bet Blackjack Game
- Roulette Min And Max Bets
- Playing Side Bets On Blackjack
Now, this does not mean that in a mathematical sense, the Kelly Criterion and its application is not a proper exercise in the determination of bet size. As a method, it is better than any other mathematical formula you may apply. Further, anyone who would do battle with Dr. Thorp on the subject of mathematics or related applications will more than likely find himself tilting at a skyscraper with a toothpick. Nonetheless, we shall venture forth with our opinions and the rationale behind them.
Table limits are the minimum and maximum betting amounts imposed at a blackjack table. For example, a standard blackjack table could have a minimum bet of $1 and a maximum bet of $1000. These limits vary from land-based gambling establishments, as well in online blackjack casinos with each different software providers and rule variants. The limits on side bets are usually considerably less than the minimum bet enforced by the table, with online blackjack side bets typically falling around the $1.00 mark. These low wagers give players the chance to throw in a quick additional bet without too much thought to add to the entertainment and winning potential of the game. Game: Minimum: Maximum: Sidebet: Min Max: Baccarat: $1.00: $500.00 Blackjack - Mini: $1.00: $500.00 Blackjack 52: $1.00: $200.00: Yes: $1.00 $2.00 Blackjack Classic.
First, let me introduce the Roberts' mini-max betting concept, which, although not unique, was first expressed in writing by me in 1971. The blackjack player has but two bets to make: the table minimum or the table maximum, hence the name mini-max. The decision as to when to play the table maximum is based upon the moment the deck favours the player. The principle herein is that the incremental increase is a multiple of the favourable percentage, be it just a tiny fraction or a percentage point. The theory is that you will win more of these hands, and the more money in play, the more the player will eventually win. In practice, however, the table maximum is replaced by 'the most you can get away with.'
Of course, you must be properly bankrolled for a 'table maximum' in order for this course to be feasible. Since blackjack is a game of probability as opposed to certainty, it is possible to lose, even when you have the edge in the short run. To overcome this, you must have an adequate bankroll.
One way to determine that bankroll figure is to use the Kelly Criterion, which will then involve a varying bet. Another way is to average these esoteric formulations to arrive at an operating rule of thumb. One that seems to work for the overwhelming majority of players is to keep the maximum bet within one to two percent of the starting bankroll. This will provide a sufficient wager for all but the most extraordinary of improbable occurrences. This rule assumes, however, that you play your system repeatedly without error in the casinos and that you are using a winning system which has received extensive computer testing, not one of your own derivation.
Now, as a practical matter, no casino will let you get away with a minimum-maximum betting pattern. In fact, if you would like the 'thrill' (???) of getting barred, all you need to do is vary your bet from. the table minimum to the table maximum, and in short order, you will be approached by a floorman who will ask you to stop playing blackjack. If by chance, you are one of those diehard sceptics who still does not believe that casinos bar skilled blackjack players, I recommend the experience.
Roulette Min And Max Bets In Casinos
So it became necessary to find a pattern which you can use. Here is the solution: Divide your total bankroll by either 50, or 100. If your time is short, say a weekend, use the 50 figure. The result is your maximum bet. It should be at least four times the table minimum. If you don't have this much money, you are in the wrong casino at the wrong table, or you should not be playing at all. Your minimum bet should be 20 to 25 percent of your maximum in a single-deck game. In a four-deck game, you should have a minimum bet of 10 to 15 percent of your maximum.
There is nothing else to consider in this matter, the Kelly Criterion notwithstanding, except that you should make your first bet off the top of the new deck twice the amount of the minimum. And if the number of chips you are betting as a minimum is two chips or more, you can experiment with both your minimum and maximum bets by varying them one chip in either direction on a random basis. However, your average bet should equal the standard you have set for the minimum and the maximum. The variations of betting are used to avoid the image of systematic betting which might make pit personnel think you are a card counter.*
I fully realize that many others will also disagree with the above commentary, not the least of which is my good friend, Kenny Uston. We have discussed this subject before. Further, if you have the skills of a player like Uston, the Kelly Criterion makes more sense. But to the overwhelming majority of average to good card counters, the Kelly Criterion is a needless burden that further complicates a difficult task. Again, remember the KISS rule: Keep it simple, stupid.
*As an example of this, assume that you have a $2,000 bankroll and you are in Nevada for a short trip. One-fiftieth of your bankroll is $40- that would be your maximum bet. Your minimum bet would be $10. You would probably play at a $5 minimum table. Your initial bet off a newly-shuffled deck would be $20. You could then vary your minimum bet from $5 to $10 to $15, and your maximum could be either $35, $40 or $45. When making the larger bet, you should use a $24 chip plus the required $5 chips. The fewer the chips, the less apparent is the jump in bets.
The table limit is the minimum and maximum bet that a gambler can make at a gaming table. It is a form of yield management in that the limits can be changed to optimize the profit from a gaming table. Gaming tables have a limited resource to sell: the seats used by the players.
Minimum table limits[edit]
Table limits can also be used to manage, in a limited manner, who plays at tables. A casino that wants to project a more exclusive image can set the limits higher so that the casual player walking through would not be as likely to sit down and play. Also games with a lower house edge often have a higher minimum bet. Baccarat almost always has a high minimum bet since the house edge is relatively low. Often a casino will advertise a low minimum game as a teaser, a sign might read $2 blackjack 24 hours a day. However, the $2 minimum game might be available at only one table and the payout might be 6:5 for a blackjack.
Historically the attitude has changed about table limits. In the early 1990s in downtown Vegas, quarter minimum bets were common. The low minimums created a general excitement in the casinos as hundreds of people would jostle to play table games. However, casinos floors generally had twice as many employees as they do today. It also made it much easier to introduce new gamblers to table games. Most casinos today would prefer that the low rollers play slot machines which do not require as much oversight.
Normally the limits are set to optimize the return from the seats. Since all table games give the house an advantage, the larger the bets, the larger the house's profit, so the house needs to manage the minimum bets to keep the seats full. This usually results in a low limit early in the day when there are fewer players with the limits increasing as more players become available.[original research?]
Players who are seated when the limit is changed are usually grandfathered in at the old limit. In some casinos they retain the old limit until they leave, in others the lower limit will last for a limited period of time.
Casinos are increasingly turning towards expensive virtual gaming tables to offer low minimum table limit games to customers. Although electronic versions of table games like blackjack have been available for years, they typically raise the house edge by paying even money on blackjack to handle the very low table limits. The more expensive virtual games with high definition video simulations of real dealers pay normal 3:2 payouts, but still include some limitations like limiting the player from doubling soft combinations. Since the electronic machines are available 24/7 and do not require a paid dealer, they are popular ways to augment the gaming pit.[1]
High table limits[edit]
Table maximums can be as low as $50 at the small locals casino Poker Palace,[2] but major strip casinos usually offer some tables with a $10,000 maximum. Exceptions are the Golden Nugget in downtown which permits $15,000 bets, and three tables at Caesars Palace which permit bets between $5,000 and $50,000.[3]
High table limits have their own requirements. For instance as of the year ending September 2009, the 231 blackjack tables in downtown Las Vegas earn an average of $531 per day and the 36 craps table earn an average of $2258 per day in gross revenue before expenses. Although the house has a statistical edge on the expected return, the casino has no control over variance. The outcome of a small number of players making huge bets is unpredictable. The casino could make record profits, or the players could wipe out the cash in the casino or eliminate the profit for the month. Maximum table limits prevent the casino from taking too much of a gamble. For a small casino table maximums are set at $100–$500 per bet. The larger casino can afford larger maximums.[original research?]
Tim Poster and Tom Breitling purchased the Golden Nugget casino in downtown Vegas in January 2004. Although they personally invested $50 million of their own money in the project, they did not have the deep pockets of a major corporation. In order to create the ambiance of Old Vegas, and to attract the high rollers to the aging casino, they elected to work with lower house edges and high table limits. The strategy worked for around 9 months until a high roller won $8.5 million over a two-week period and wiped out their profit for a year. The owners elected to return to table limits to something less risky. After selling the casino to Landry's Restaurant Tom Breitling wrote a book entitled Double or Nothing about running a high risk business.[4]
High rollers are usually handled by the largest corporations with revenues of several billion dollars a year. The corporations can handle large quarterly variations in profits. In the 21st century Las Vegas changed their policy established in 1931 that all gaming should be public. They permitted small clubs to be opened strictly for high rollers. The Paiza Club in the Palazzo hotel requires that players have at least $300,000 of credit or on front money deposit to play.[5] Live feeds directly to the State Gaming Commission are a requirement.
A table or a game without a limit is commonly referred to as no-limit. These tables generally allow the player to bet as much as they wish. This is a common form of Texas hold 'em in tournament play where the size of the bets are limited by the chips in play or cash games where the bet is limited by the size of the 'buy in' or chips one has accumulated prior to the current hand. No-limit can be a somewhat deceptive term, however, as one may not bring more money to the table once a hand has started or place a bet for more than the total amount that one has in play when the hands starts.
Free Bet Blackjack Game
There is a widely held belief that casinos instituted maximum table limits to limit Martingale betting strategies. The simplest of these strategies involves a player doubling his or her bet every time a loss is incurred on a bet with even odds, until he or she wins.[6][7] In reality casinos are not at risk from Martingale players. They are at risk against the lucky player who is betting an amount that would be proportionately high for that particular business.It is considered that the number of high and low limit tables are unique to each casino. For example, in Las Vegas Neighborhood and Downtown casinos usually have lower limit tables than Strip casinos. Locals point, that The El Cortez on Fremont Street has plenty of low-limit games, plus blackjack from a single or double-deck shoe.[8]
Roulette Min And Max Bets
So it became necessary to find a pattern which you can use. Here is the solution: Divide your total bankroll by either 50, or 100. If your time is short, say a weekend, use the 50 figure. The result is your maximum bet. It should be at least four times the table minimum. If you don't have this much money, you are in the wrong casino at the wrong table, or you should not be playing at all. Your minimum bet should be 20 to 25 percent of your maximum in a single-deck game. In a four-deck game, you should have a minimum bet of 10 to 15 percent of your maximum.
There is nothing else to consider in this matter, the Kelly Criterion notwithstanding, except that you should make your first bet off the top of the new deck twice the amount of the minimum. And if the number of chips you are betting as a minimum is two chips or more, you can experiment with both your minimum and maximum bets by varying them one chip in either direction on a random basis. However, your average bet should equal the standard you have set for the minimum and the maximum. The variations of betting are used to avoid the image of systematic betting which might make pit personnel think you are a card counter.*
I fully realize that many others will also disagree with the above commentary, not the least of which is my good friend, Kenny Uston. We have discussed this subject before. Further, if you have the skills of a player like Uston, the Kelly Criterion makes more sense. But to the overwhelming majority of average to good card counters, the Kelly Criterion is a needless burden that further complicates a difficult task. Again, remember the KISS rule: Keep it simple, stupid.
*As an example of this, assume that you have a $2,000 bankroll and you are in Nevada for a short trip. One-fiftieth of your bankroll is $40- that would be your maximum bet. Your minimum bet would be $10. You would probably play at a $5 minimum table. Your initial bet off a newly-shuffled deck would be $20. You could then vary your minimum bet from $5 to $10 to $15, and your maximum could be either $35, $40 or $45. When making the larger bet, you should use a $24 chip plus the required $5 chips. The fewer the chips, the less apparent is the jump in bets.
The table limit is the minimum and maximum bet that a gambler can make at a gaming table. It is a form of yield management in that the limits can be changed to optimize the profit from a gaming table. Gaming tables have a limited resource to sell: the seats used by the players.
Minimum table limits[edit]
Table limits can also be used to manage, in a limited manner, who plays at tables. A casino that wants to project a more exclusive image can set the limits higher so that the casual player walking through would not be as likely to sit down and play. Also games with a lower house edge often have a higher minimum bet. Baccarat almost always has a high minimum bet since the house edge is relatively low. Often a casino will advertise a low minimum game as a teaser, a sign might read $2 blackjack 24 hours a day. However, the $2 minimum game might be available at only one table and the payout might be 6:5 for a blackjack.
Historically the attitude has changed about table limits. In the early 1990s in downtown Vegas, quarter minimum bets were common. The low minimums created a general excitement in the casinos as hundreds of people would jostle to play table games. However, casinos floors generally had twice as many employees as they do today. It also made it much easier to introduce new gamblers to table games. Most casinos today would prefer that the low rollers play slot machines which do not require as much oversight.
Normally the limits are set to optimize the return from the seats. Since all table games give the house an advantage, the larger the bets, the larger the house's profit, so the house needs to manage the minimum bets to keep the seats full. This usually results in a low limit early in the day when there are fewer players with the limits increasing as more players become available.[original research?]
Players who are seated when the limit is changed are usually grandfathered in at the old limit. In some casinos they retain the old limit until they leave, in others the lower limit will last for a limited period of time.
Casinos are increasingly turning towards expensive virtual gaming tables to offer low minimum table limit games to customers. Although electronic versions of table games like blackjack have been available for years, they typically raise the house edge by paying even money on blackjack to handle the very low table limits. The more expensive virtual games with high definition video simulations of real dealers pay normal 3:2 payouts, but still include some limitations like limiting the player from doubling soft combinations. Since the electronic machines are available 24/7 and do not require a paid dealer, they are popular ways to augment the gaming pit.[1]
High table limits[edit]
Table maximums can be as low as $50 at the small locals casino Poker Palace,[2] but major strip casinos usually offer some tables with a $10,000 maximum. Exceptions are the Golden Nugget in downtown which permits $15,000 bets, and three tables at Caesars Palace which permit bets between $5,000 and $50,000.[3]
High table limits have their own requirements. For instance as of the year ending September 2009, the 231 blackjack tables in downtown Las Vegas earn an average of $531 per day and the 36 craps table earn an average of $2258 per day in gross revenue before expenses. Although the house has a statistical edge on the expected return, the casino has no control over variance. The outcome of a small number of players making huge bets is unpredictable. The casino could make record profits, or the players could wipe out the cash in the casino or eliminate the profit for the month. Maximum table limits prevent the casino from taking too much of a gamble. For a small casino table maximums are set at $100–$500 per bet. The larger casino can afford larger maximums.[original research?]
Tim Poster and Tom Breitling purchased the Golden Nugget casino in downtown Vegas in January 2004. Although they personally invested $50 million of their own money in the project, they did not have the deep pockets of a major corporation. In order to create the ambiance of Old Vegas, and to attract the high rollers to the aging casino, they elected to work with lower house edges and high table limits. The strategy worked for around 9 months until a high roller won $8.5 million over a two-week period and wiped out their profit for a year. The owners elected to return to table limits to something less risky. After selling the casino to Landry's Restaurant Tom Breitling wrote a book entitled Double or Nothing about running a high risk business.[4]
High rollers are usually handled by the largest corporations with revenues of several billion dollars a year. The corporations can handle large quarterly variations in profits. In the 21st century Las Vegas changed their policy established in 1931 that all gaming should be public. They permitted small clubs to be opened strictly for high rollers. The Paiza Club in the Palazzo hotel requires that players have at least $300,000 of credit or on front money deposit to play.[5] Live feeds directly to the State Gaming Commission are a requirement.
A table or a game without a limit is commonly referred to as no-limit. These tables generally allow the player to bet as much as they wish. This is a common form of Texas hold 'em in tournament play where the size of the bets are limited by the chips in play or cash games where the bet is limited by the size of the 'buy in' or chips one has accumulated prior to the current hand. No-limit can be a somewhat deceptive term, however, as one may not bring more money to the table once a hand has started or place a bet for more than the total amount that one has in play when the hands starts.
Free Bet Blackjack Game
There is a widely held belief that casinos instituted maximum table limits to limit Martingale betting strategies. The simplest of these strategies involves a player doubling his or her bet every time a loss is incurred on a bet with even odds, until he or she wins.[6][7] In reality casinos are not at risk from Martingale players. They are at risk against the lucky player who is betting an amount that would be proportionately high for that particular business.It is considered that the number of high and low limit tables are unique to each casino. For example, in Las Vegas Neighborhood and Downtown casinos usually have lower limit tables than Strip casinos. Locals point, that The El Cortez on Fremont Street has plenty of low-limit games, plus blackjack from a single or double-deck shoe.[8]
Roulette Min And Max Bets
References[edit]
- ^'Table Master'. Archived from the original on November 26, 2009.
- ^'Poker Palace web site'.
- ^Wizardofvegas.com: Las Vegas Blackjack Survey
- ^'Tom Breitling's Web Page'.
- ^'Nevada Gaming Control Board'.
- ^'The Martingale system at Baccarat'.
- ^'Martingale in Baccarat'.
- ^TERRISA MEEKS. 'Make a Date With Lady Luck at Las Vegas' 10 Best Casinos'. 10best.com.
Playing Side Bets On Blackjack
